Meta, Alphabet and Amazon to control over 60 per cent of ad spend by 2030, report

Global advertising investment is set to climb 7.4 percent this year to reach 1.17 trillion dollars, according to WARC. The forecast represents a 1.2 percentage point upgrade from June, following stronger than expected second-quarter growth. Spending is projected to rise a further 8.1 percent in 2026 to 1.27 trillion dollars, before increasing 7.1 percent in 2027, pushing the global market to 1.36 trillion dollars—double its size at the height of the pandemic.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC: "Global ad spend is growing rapidly, with digital-first platforms capturing almost all the new money. Despite economic headwinds, including disruption to global trade and reduced purchasing power among consumers, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases."

WARC’s projections, based on data from 100 markets, show that nine in ten incremental ad dollars this year are being spent on online-only platforms. Social media leads, capturing 40.6 percent of growth, followed by non-retail search at 22.2 percent and retail media at 21.5 percent.

The largest platform owners—Alphabet, Amazon and Meta—now attract more than half of all ad spend outside China. Their combined share is expected to exceed 60 percent by 2030.

Social media investment accelerates

Social media advertising is forecast to rise 14.9 percent in 2025 to 306.4 billion dollars, representing 26.2 percent of total ad spend. Growth of 12.8 percent in 2026 and 11.9 percent in 2027 would bring the sector’s value to 386.9 billion dollars.

Meta is expected to generate 184.1 billion dollars this year, equal to 60.1 percent of social spend. While its dominance may ease slightly as TikTok expands, Meta’s share of total global ad spend is still projected to climb to 16.9 percent by 2027. Instagram continues to grow faster than Facebook, though TikTok is expanding more rapidly than both.

Search and retail media maintain momentum

Search advertising is set to reach 253.2 billion dollars this year, equal to 21.6 percent of global spend. Google accounts for the majority, with forecast revenue of 217.8 billion dollars. Retail media is projected to rise 13.7 percent in 2025 to 175 billion dollars, representing 14.9 percent of global spend. Amazon is expected to capture over a third of this market, at 62 billion dollars.

Second-quarter boost from retail and tech brands

The second quarter of 2025 delivered a sharp windfall for social media platforms, driven by retailers and technology brands ahead of the US’s so-called Freedom Day trade tariffs.

Retailers increased spend by 18.8 percent on Instagram and 56.8 percent on TikTok compared to the previous year, accounting for a quarter of TikTok’s quarterly growth. Technology and electronics brands also boosted spending, particularly on Facebook (+1 billion dollars), Instagram (+501 million dollars) and TikTok (+484 million dollars).

WARC’s analysis shows the global ad market is set to double in value between 2020 and 2027. Clothing, travel and nicotine brands have increased spend most since the pandemic, while financial services remain subdued. Media and publishing is the only sector expected to record a real-term decline by 2027.

Among media channels, magazines, newspapers, broadcast TV, and radio have all contracted in real terms. By contrast, digital formats such as online audio, video-on-demand and YouTube have seen major gains, with podcast spend tripling since 2020.

Amazon, Alphabet and Meta together are forecast to grow real ad revenues by nearly 90 percent between 2020 and 2027—five times faster than all other media owners combined.

www.warc.com

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