AI agents to drive $3.35tn in purchases by 2030

The study estimates that agent-facilitated spending will increase from $944 billion in 2026 to $3.35 trillion by the end of the decade

AI agents are expected to influence $3.35 trillion in consumer spending by 2030, according to research from WARC and PHD. The report explores how AI-powered assistants are changing the path to purchase and introduces a framework to help marketers understand where machine-driven decision-making is likely to have the greatest impact.

The study estimates that agent-facilitated spending will increase from $944 billion in 2026 to $3.35 trillion by the end of the decade. While consumers are expected to continue making most purchasing decisions themselves, AI agents will increasingly shape product discovery, shortlisting and routine purchasing.

Research outlines AI adoption across markets

The report, From abundance to agents – how the delegation of choice is transforming marketing, examines how AI agents are expected to influence different industries and markets. The analysis draws on data from Acxiom and covers ten markets: Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Mexico, South Korea, the UK and the US.

According to the findings, the US will account for the largest share of agentic AI consumer spending by 2030, reaching $1.1 trillion, or 31.9 percent of the global total. China is projected to follow with $505.8 billion, while the UK is expected to reach $131.2 billion.

Four Modes Framework maps marketing impact

The report introduces PHD's Four Modes Framework, which categorises how AI agents are expected to influence purchasing decisions across industries. The framework includes Agent → Agent, Agent → Consumer, Brand → Consumer and Consumer → Consumer modes, recognising that each will play a different role depending on category, purchase occasion and stage of the customer journey.

Under the Agent → Agent model, telecoms and utilities are forecast to experience the largest increase in AI-facilitated spending, growing from $57.6 billion in 2026 to $410.3 billion by 2030. Financial services and travel and transport are also expected to see significant growth as AI takes on more responsibility for comparison, planning and purchasing.

High-frequency categories expected to lead

The Agent → Consumer model is expected to expand across categories with frequent purchasing behaviour. Food, media and publishing, retail, alcoholic drinks and soft drinks are all forecast to experience substantial growth in AI-influenced spending as consumers increasingly rely on AI for recommendations, replenishment and product discovery.

The report suggests that high-value purchases, including automobiles, consumer electronics and healthcare, will continue to rely more heavily on direct brand influence because of the importance of trust and privacy. Categories such as clothing, accessories, toiletries and cosmetics are expected to remain more dependent on creator influence and word of mouth than on AI-driven recommendations.

Brands need to prepare for AI-driven purchasing

The report concludes that marketers will need to adapt their strategies as AI agents become more involved in purchasing decisions. It identifies structured, machine-readable data, distinctive brand assets and a consistent brand story as essential capabilities for brands seeking to influence both consumers and AI systems.

Rohan Tambyrajah, Worldwide Chief Strategy Officer, PHD: "This research brings category level empiricism to the open-ended industry conversation about the growth opportunity with consumer facing AI and Agentic AI. It underscores the need for brands to design for both meaning and machine logic, and through Four Modes Framework offers marketers practical guidance on how best to implement against a category-level business case."

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting, WARC: "This landmark study finds that agentic AI is already facilitating the path to purchase for many consumers, and will become deeply embedded over the coming years to influence $3.35trn in household expenditure by 2030.

This is true not just in high-frequency categories such as travel, CPG, and utilities, but increasingly more so in sectors that have traditionally leveraged brand marketing as a core strategy. By mapping adoption across product sectors, markets and media, our research ensures practitioners are not caught flat-footed as they approach the new frontier."

The full report can be accessed here