WARC: Gulf crisis puts $94bn in ad growth at risk

A prolonged conflict in the Gulf region could put nearly $94 billion in global advertising growth at risk over the next 18 months, according to a new forecast from WARC Media.

The report estimates that ongoing disruption linked to the Strait of Hormuz blockade could reduce global ad market growth by as much as $39.6 billion in 2026 alone, with a further $54.1 billion at risk in 2027 if conditions worsen.

Global ad growth remains strong despite uncertainty

WARC has upgraded its global advertising growth forecast for 2026 to 11.5 per cent, with total investment expected to reach $1.39 trillion. The increase reflects strong performance from online platforms during the first half of the year.

However, the report warns that rising energy prices, supply chain disruption and weaker consumer spending could weigh on advertising investment during the second half of the year and beyond.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasting at WARC: "As the Gulf Crisis stretches into its fourth month, global markets are now in damage limitation mode as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz acts like a tax on consumers, lifting prices and squeezing real spending power.

"If the conflict drags on – or further intensifies – these risks shift toward stagflation, with sectors such as travel, automotive, and food acutely exposed to higher production costs and weaker demand. The net effect is a grueling squeeze on margins that could put as much as $94bn of anticipated ad market growth at risk over the coming 18 months."

Regional markets face varying levels of exposure

WARC's baseline forecast projects global ad market growth of 8.2 per cent in 2027, taking total investment to $1.50 trillion. The outlook varies considerably by region.

Southeast Asia and Latin America are among the markets most vulnerable to a worsening crisis due to their exposure to energy imports and international trade flows. Latin America, forecast to grow 12.8 per cent in 2026, could see that figure fall to 3.4 per cent under WARC's most severe scenario.

China is also exposed to higher shipping and energy costs, with projected ad growth declining from 7.9 per cent to 5.3 per cent in a severe scenario.

By contrast, the United States is expected to remain relatively resilient. WARC forecasts 9.5 per cent growth in 2026, supported by major events including the FIFA World Cup and the US midterm elections. Even under a severe scenario, growth would remain positive at 7.2 per cent.

Gulf and European markets under pressure

The report highlights growing pressure across Gulf Cooperation Council markets, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain.

Under WARC's most severe scenario, advertising investment in the region would contract by 0.2 per cent in 2026, compared with baseline growth expectations of 11.7 per cent.

Across the Eurozone, growth is forecast at 5.6 per cent this year, although that could slow to 1.8 per cent if the crisis intensifies. France would be pushed into advertising recession, while the UK and Germany would also experience slower growth.

Travel, automotive and food sectors most exposed

The study identifies travel, automotive and food as the sectors most vulnerable to prolonged disruption.

Travel and transport advertising is already forecast to decline by 3.5 per cent globally in 2026, making it the weakest-performing major category. Airlines operating in the Middle East have begun reassessing marketing budgets as uncertainty continues.

Automotive advertising is also under pressure from higher manufacturing costs and softer consumer demand. In Germany, automotive ad spend growth could shift from a projected increase of 1.9 per cent to a decline of 4.2 per cent under a severe scenario.

The food sector remains relatively resilient in the short term, with ad spend forecast to grow 10.3 per cent this year. However, WARC expects rising costs across supply chains to have a greater impact during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.

Brand-building channels face greater risk

The report suggests that a worsening economic environment would have an uneven impact across media channels.

Linear television is forecast to decline by 2.7 per cent in 2026 under the baseline scenario, with losses accelerating if the crisis deepens. While the FIFA World Cup is expected to provide a temporary boost to television advertising, that support could weaken under more severe economic conditions.

Social media and paid search appear more resilient. Social media ad spend is forecast to grow 20.0 per cent this year, while paid search, including generative AI-powered search, remains one of the most stable advertising channels across all scenarios.

Even under the most severe projections, search, social media and retail media are expected to account for roughly two-thirds of global advertising investment.

Publishing and cinema are among the channels most exposed to economic disruption, with both expected to experience sharper declines if consumer confidence and discretionary spending weaken further.