WARC flags widening gap in Big Tech ad growth

Amazon exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter of 2025, while YouTube fell significantly short of forecasts, according to WARC Media’s analysis of Big Tech advertising revenues.

WARC’s Q4 2025 review shows Amazon outperforming its benchmark by 5.5 percentage points, while YouTube missed forecasts by 9.3 percentage points. Meta came in slightly below expectations at -1.4 percentage points, though its quarterly performance showed resilience.

WARC launches quarterly Earnings Debrief

The figures come from WARC Media’s Earnings Debrief, a quarterly series comparing reported advertising revenues from major technology platforms against WARC’s global ad spend forecasts.

James McDonald, Director of Data, Intelligence & Forecasts at WARC: "WARC Media’s Earnings Debrief cuts through the headline numbers to show what’s really driving performance across the major ad platforms.

"By refreshing forecasts quarterly, WARC’s benchmarks give clients a timely read on where growth is accelerating, where it’s stalling, and why — from Amazon’s retail media momentum and full-funnel scaling, to YouTube’s Shorts monetisation gap and Google’s AI pivot. In a fast-moving market, this recency and context is essential for understanding trajectory and informing confident investment decisions."

YouTube underperforms as Shorts monetisation lags

YouTube recorded the weakest performance relative to forecast, missing expectations by 9.3 percentage points. Political advertising linked to the US Presidential Election had previously inflated CPMs, with a sharper-than-expected cooling in Q4.

While engagement remains strong, growth in conventional in-stream advertising appears limited. Shorts now averages more than 200 billion daily views, and in several major markets revenue per watch hour exceeds that of traditional formats. However, Shorts still accounts for a relatively small share of total ad revenue due to evolving monetisation models.

Around one third of YouTube’s total revenue, approximately US$20 billion, now comes from subscriptions to its ad-free Premium service, potentially constraining future advertising growth.

AI investment shapes Meta and Google results

Meta delivered a steadier quarter, narrowly missing forecasts. Increased use of AI in ad targeting and measurement drove 18 percent growth in ad impressions and a 6 percent rise in pricing. Video engagement, particularly Reels across Facebook and Instagram, strengthened advertiser demand, though monetisation rates remain below traditional in-feed ads.

Google’s performance was mixed. The Google Display Network declined by 1.6 percent in Q4 and 1.9 percent for the full year, slightly behind forecast. Search remained structurally resilient, tracking close to expectations at +0.8 percentage points for the year, despite competition from generative AI alternatives. Integration of AI into search products has supported engagement, albeit alongside a significant increase in capital expenditure.

Amazon strengthens retail media position

Amazon ranked as the quarter’s strongest performer, beating expectations by 5.5 percentage points. Although advertising accounts for less than 10 percent of total revenues, the company now stands as the world’s third-largest digital advertising platform.

Retail media continues to underpin growth, with 81.5 percent of ad income generated onsite. The introduction of advertising within Prime Video has expanded Amazon’s full-funnel offer, reaching an estimated 315 million monthly ad-supported viewers globally.

WARC concludes that the final quarter of 2025 reflects a market favouring platforms that combine scale, first-party data and measurable outcomes, reinforcing Amazon’s momentum as competitors adjust their strategies.