Global ad spend to reach $1.34 trillion in 2026

Social media is projected to capture 40.2 percent of total advertising expenditure by technology and electronics companies this year, underlining the channel's role in reaching consumers and building demand in competitive markets.

Global advertising expenditure is forecast to increase by 11.9 percent to $1.34 trillion in 2026, as investment in digital channels and artificial intelligence (AI) supports growth despite consumer spending pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, according to WARC Media's Q3 2026 Global Ad Spend Forecast update.

The forecast follows 10.0 percent growth in both 2024 and 2025. Major events, including the Olympics, FIFA World Cup and US midterm elections, are expected to contribute to advertising investment alongside corporate spending on AI. However, further geopolitical tensions could create downside risks.

Social Media Leads Advertising Channel Growth

Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data: "These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others."

Social media is forecast to record the strongest growth among advertising channels in 2026, with expenditure rising 21.3 percent to $394.6 billion. WARC expects the channel to surpass $500 billion in annual advertising investment by 2028.

Digital OOH and Retail Media Record Double-Digit Growth

Video on demand (VOD) advertising is forecast to grow 15.1 percent to $48.4 billion in 2026. Retail media investment is expected to increase 14.3 percent to $202.1 billion, while search advertising will rise 14.2 percent to $295.7 billion.

Digital out of home (OOH) advertising is also set for double-digit growth, increasing 13.7 percent to $21.7 billion. Social media, search and retail media together are expected to account for 66.4 percent of global advertising expenditure in 2026, rising to 70.0 percent by 2028. WARC attributes the continued strength of performance-oriented channels to their ability to respond to changing market conditions.

Technology and Travel Lead Sector Growth

Technology and electronics is forecast to be the fastest-growing product category in 2026, with advertising investment increasing 20.7 percent year on year. Travel and transport follows at 19.3 percent, while automotive advertising is expected to grow 17.8 percent.

Global Advertising Growth to Moderate in 2027

WARC expects global advertising expenditure to rise by 8.4 percent to $1.46 trillion in 2027. The slower growth rate reflects tougher year-on-year comparisons and a normalisation following the strong increases recorded in recent years.

In 2028, the market is forecast to expand by a further 7.9 percent to $1.57 trillion. This would make global advertising expenditure approximately 2.3 times its 2019 level, reflecting the sector's sustained expansion over the decade.

AI Creates Advertising Opportunities and Channels

AI is contributing to advertising growth through increased investment from technology companies seeking customers and brand recognition, as well as established businesses competing in increasingly crowded markets. AI tools are also supporting audience targeting, creative production and campaign optimisation, helping advertisers improve returns on investment.

Generative search and AI assistants are creating additional opportunities for advertising as consumers increasingly use these tools to discover products and make purchasing decisions. As these platforms develop, advertisers may shift more investment towards the environments where consumers research and select brands.

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta Strengthen Market Share

Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are forecast to account for a combined 59.7 percent of global advertising expenditure outside China in 2026, equivalent to $659.6 billion. WARC expects their combined share to rise to 61.5 percent, or $804.1 billion, by 2028.

The projection highlights the concentration of advertising investment among three major technology platforms, even as spending expands across channels such as retail media, digital OOH and VOD.

Advertising Investment Varies Across Markets

Forecast advertising expenditure per capita differs substantially between developed and emerging economies. The United States is expected to record $1,395 per person in 2026, followed by the United Kingdom at $935, Austria at $850 and Switzerland at $825.

By comparison, forecast spending stands at $170 per capita in China, $110 in Brazil and $13 in India. While these markets have lower advertising investment relative to population, their large consumer bases could offer opportunities for further growth as their advertising industries develop.

www.warc.com

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