Global ad spend growth to slow in 2026, report

Dentsu forecasts that algorithmically enabled advertising spend will account for 75 percent of total ad spend by 2028

Global advertising spend is forecast to grow by 5.0 percent in 2026, reaching $1.06 trillion, according to dentsu’s latest Global Ad Spend Forecasts report.

The projection follows stronger-than-expected growth of 5.8 percent in 2025 and marks the first time global ad spend is expected to remain above the $1 trillion threshold.

The report examines advertising trends across 56 markets and highlights the continued dominance of digital media, the growing influence of algorithm-driven advertising and the impact of major global events including the FIFA World Cup, Winter Olympic Games and national elections.

Algorithm-driven advertising continues to expand

Dentsu forecasts that algorithmically enabled advertising spend will account for 75 percent of total ad spend by 2028, reflecting the increasing role of automation and AI in media buying decisions.

The report notes that confidence generated by major technology platforms including Alphabet, Amazon and Meta is helping offset advertiser caution linked to economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

Will Swayne, Global Practice President – Media & Integrated Solutions, dentsu: “Analysing projected ad spend trends allows marketers to balance their investments taking into account a dual focus: a snapshot of the current situation that is informing current sentiment across platforms and advertisers, and the longer-term forces that are reshaping how media connects with consumers. Looking at the forecast through the former lens, it’s easy to find a correlation between the projected slowdown in growth and the current economic uncertainty tied to emerging geopolitical tensions. Moving to the latter, our forecasts confirm the rising importance of algorithms in transforming media strategies, as algorithmically enabled ad spend is now expected to reach 75 percent of total ad spend by 2028.”

Digital channels remain primary growth driver

Digital media is forecast to account for 69 percent of total ad spend across the 56 markets covered in the report. Dentsu identified retail media, connected TV, digital video, social media and digital out-of-home as the fastest-growing channels.

Search advertising growth is expected to moderate to 3.4 percent in 2026 as AI tools, retail platforms and social search continue to reshape the search landscape.

Connected TV is forecast to grow by 11.5 percent in 2026, supported by premium content, sports broadcasting rights and the expansion of ad-supported streaming models. Digital video is projected to rise by 8.7 percent, contributing to overall video advertising growth of 5.1 percent, while linear TV remains flat.

Will Swayne: “Our recently published Brand Reset report, an industry-first framework that quantifies how next-gen video platforms, formats and types of attention deliver real business outcomes, unveiled that digital video delivers multi-year brand building effects, and that Connected TV has the power to build brands on par with Linear TV. What we are seeing in the forecast suggests that marketers are starting to embrace the new video marketplace to reap these benefits.”

Retail media and technology sectors drive growth

Retail media is expected to continue its double-digit expansion, growing 12.3 percent in 2026 and 11.4 percent in 2027, reflecting increased advertiser investment in commerce-led media strategies.

The report identifies government, social, political and organisational advertising as the fastest-growing category in 2026 at 12.8 percent growth, followed by technology at 12.5 percent, beverages at 10.9 percent and media and entertainment at 6.4 percent.

Regional markets show varied growth rates

Regionally, APAC is forecast to lead ad spend growth at 5.9 percent in 2026, followed by the Americas at 4.8 percent and EMEA at 3.6 percent.

The report also notes that global advertising growth is expected to continue outpacing broader economic growth, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting global economic expansion of 3.1 percent in 2026.

www.dentsu.com

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