[eMarketer] Facebook ad spending on an upward trajectory

Since Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency (ATT) framework in iOS 14.5 took effect in late April, Facebook has experienced steadily worsening data loss as iOS users have adopted the update. For Facebook, data loss includes user-level data posted back from IDFAs as well as the Facebook pixel, the piece of tracking code placed on brand websites.

Despite Apple’s iOS privacy changes, eMarketer estimates that US advertisers will spend $50.30 billion on Facebook advertising in 2021, up 32.1% from last year. That’s a significant increase versus our March 2021 and October 2020 expectations, when we predicted growth of 26.6% and 21.8%, respectively.

Ad spending growth on Facebook will slow to 15.5% next year as the company continues to scale following a significant increase in growth this year. However, we now predict slightly slower growth next year than we did in our March forecast—a decrease of 2.2 percentage points—due to headwinds related to Apple’s privacy changes and their impacts on the efficiency and measurement of Facebook ads.

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