[eMarketer] Apps will shift from ad dependency in 2022

Making money through ads has gotten harder, so many developers will place bets that consumers are ready to sign up for even more subscriptions and to buy things directly through their apps.

Subscriptions will spread to new areas. The early 2021 arrival of Apple’s AppTrackingTransparency (ATT) framework limited the collection of iOS user data, effectively making the personalized advertising that has driven app economies much less cost-effective. Some app developers—particularly those in the gaming category—have banked on consumers’ increased comfort with subscriptions as a result.

Sensor Tower estimates that 29% of the top 100 games by US App Store revenue monetized via subscriptions in 2020, up from 17% in 2018.

eMarketer says this trend is expected to continue in the coming year with more subscription-based apps in gaming, media, fitness/wellness, and perhaps even social media, where Twitter Blue represents an early tentative effort. Even so, consumers may be nearing a limit on how many subscriptions they’re willing to buy.

Social media apps will double down on ecommerce. Most have already introduced some payment options, with Facebook also expanding Facebook Pay for use outside its platform. Facebook, TikTok, Snap, and YouTube are also exploring new ecommerce media that can be accessed via mobile—such as livestream video, clickable images, and influencer stores—many of which can produce direct revenue streams. We expect US social commerce sales to increase 24.9% in 2022 to nearly $46 billion.

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