Ad spend shifts as marketers seek stability

Marketers adjusted their channel mix in 2025 as platform fragmentation, rising creative demands and regulatory uncertainty reshaped investment decisions. Social media continued to deliver strong return on investment, but its share of total spend declined as brands reassessed risk and scale.

The 2026 Marketing Investment Framework & Decision Guide from Keen Decision Systems draws on data from more than 400 brands and over 42 billion dollars in historical marketing investment across multiple sectors. The report outlines how advertisers allocated budgets in 2025 and where performance improved or weakened.

Social media and search show diverging paths

Social media’s share of total spend fell from 18 percent to 17 percent in 2025. Investment in TikTok dropped by 8 percentage points following significant increases in 2024. At the same time, Meta regained ground, accounting for 60 percent of social media investment after falling to 55 percent in 2024, supported by improved ROI and lower costs.

Search maintained the largest share of overall media investment at 25 percent in 2025. Streaming video held steady at 17 percent, while display rose by 4 percent to 15 percent. Linear TV represented 19 percent of total spend, though returns declined over the year.

Justin Jefferson, Vice President, Strategy and Insights at Keen Decision Systems: "Channel allocations in 2025 reflected marketers’ desire to lean into what’s reliable, whether it was by holding commitments even as returns softened or hesitated on channels that haven’t yet proven at scale. This pattern created efficiency gains in some areas while leaving significant untapped opportunities in others. In 2026, brands should prioritize a mix that balances legacy and emerging channels without losing ROI."

Streaming gains as linear TV weakens

Streaming video attracted higher budgets as brands redirected spend from linear TV to ad-supported streaming platforms. Connected TV accounted for 59 percent of streaming budgets, compared with 41 percent for online video. Within connected TV, Amazon secured the largest share of investment with stable performance. The Trade Desk recorded declining ROI despite significant investment, while Hulu and Disney improved ROI but faced sharp cost increases. Overall, connected TV ROI rose from 1.60 dollars to 1.90 dollars.

The report also highlights a sustained move toward upper-funnel activity. Between 2022 and 2025, brands across all sizes increased top-of-funnel allocations. Companies with budgets exceeding 100 million dollars raised their share from 43 percent to 58 percent. Streaming video and social media saw the strongest growth within upper-funnel tactics, while display climbed from 18 percent to 27 percent in 2026, marking the most significant year-on-year increase.

Retail media expands beyond capture

Retail media’s share of budgets increased from 15 percent in 2022 to 22 percent in 2025 as brands expanded beyond lower-funnel capture strategies into broader awareness formats. Although Amazon remained the largest retail media network, its share of spend declined from 56 percent in 2024 to 46 percent in 2025, with budgets shifting toward Walmart and mid-sized retailers.

Justin Jefferson: "Based on these findings, we’d advise brands to start making a gradual shift from linear TV to streaming as a top-of-funnel tactic while maintaining proven performers like search where ROI justifies continued investment. By strategically allocating their investments across the funnel, including retail media, brands of all sizes can experience sustained brand building."

The full report can be accessed here

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