WARC outlines shifts shaping media planning in 2026

Global advertising spend is forecast to reach $1.30 trillion in 2026, an increase of 9.1 percent year on year, according to WARC forecasts. The total market has doubled in size since the pandemic, equating to around $150 spent on advertising for every person worldwide.

Most incremental growth continues to flow to digital platforms rather than traditional media. Close to 80 percent of global advertising spend is now concentrated in retail media, paid search and social platforms, with the remaining 20 percent spread across the rest of the media industry. This concentration is prompting advertisers to reassess long-established approaches to media planning.

Systems planning challenges legacy models

Paul Stringer, Managing Editor, Research & Insights, WARC: "The established model for media planning and buying is breaking apart – and nobody knows exactly what comes next. The groundwork for a new model is just beginning."

Paul Stringer: "This year’s Future of Media report maps the contours of this emerging model. First, by looking at how structural changes inside client organisations and across the media landscape are giving rise to a new model for planning, inspired by systems-thinking. Second, by examining how AI is rewriting the rules of search and simultaneously creating a secondary audience for marketing: machines. And finally, how growing investment in user-generated content and creator marketing represents a new form of brand-building that, at this stage, most marketers seem underprepared for."

The Future of Media 2026 report examines these three trends in detail, positioning them as central to how marketers can respond to increasing complexity, adapt their planning processes and identify opportunities for growth.

From static plans to adaptive systems

Traditional planning approaches based on static plans, rigid personas and fixed channel definitions are under pressure. Structural and technological shifts in marketing and media have reduced the effectiveness of these models, particularly in an AI-driven environment that demands greater flexibility.

The report highlights the emergence of systems planning, an approach focused on designing adaptive systems of influence across the full brand experience. Dan Gilbert, CEO of Brainlabs: "Designing adaptive systems of influence" allows brands to build equity and shape decisions by recognising how touchpoint influence varies by context, category and consumer. This approach requires new mental models, frameworks and planning tools that are only beginning to take shape.

Skills for an AI-enabled media landscape

Systems planning places increased emphasis on developing talent with connective capabilities across data, commerce and creativity. These skills are presented as critical for managing AI-enabled marketing platforms and improving performance across increasingly complex media ecosystems.

The shift also implies organisational change, as planning becomes less about fixed channel allocations and more about orchestrating interconnected systems that respond dynamically to consumer behaviour and media signals.

Visibility as AI reshapes search

AI-driven search tools are changing how people discover information and make decisions. Consumers are using AI-powered search for longer and more complex queries, spanning a wider range of intents and discovery behaviours that vary significantly by category and context.

This shift is driving the need for generative engine optimisation, or GEO, which differs from traditional search engine optimisation. GEO prioritises structured, credible and authoritative content designed to be understood by both humans and machines, including large language models and AI agents. The report notes that owned and earned media play a growing role in supporting visibility within AI-driven search environments.

Making creator investment more effective

The creator economy continues to expand, with revenues expected to exceed $376.6 billion by 2030, according to WPP Media. However, the report argues that a significant share of current investment fails to deliver value due to unclear definitions, poor brand fit and weak measurement frameworks.

To improve return on investment, the report recommends closer alignment between brands and creators, clearer and measurable objectives, and stronger methods for assessing business impact. It also highlights the importance of creative quality, appropriate use of brand assets and a structured learning agenda that balances analysis of past activity with testing new strategies.

The Future of Media 2026 combines WARC analysis with external research to provide actionable insights for marketers and strategists. The report forms part of WARC’s Evolution of Marketing programme, alongside recent publications including Voice of the Marketer 2026, The Marketer’s Toolkit 2026 and The GEISTE report.

www.warc.com

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